Ames Progressive

Gavin: 8:00 — The pre-debate media narrative: John McCain needs a game changer, and this could be his last chance. Lucky for him, it’s a town hall, the format he is said to excel in. There’s also a lot of discussion about McCain’s and Palin’s attacks on Obama — linking him to Bill Ayers, etc. — but they don’t appear to be gaining traction, at least not yet. Obama just has to keep doing what he’s doing, and with the Dow continuing to tank this could already effectively be game over for McCain.

Cris: 8:02 — Regardless of how well McCain performs, I don’t see how he can reverse the losses he’s sustained this month

8:03 — Latest NBC news poll projects he’d lose by 100 electoral votes if the election were held today

Gavin: 8:04 — I think it would be more than that. McCain isn’t keeping the Kerry states in play and he’s trailing or even in most of the current toss-ups, many of them solid Bush states in 2000 and 2004

Cris: 8:05 — (Also, it sucks that all these questions are pre-screened. It’s a farce to have people saying them since they’re all selected in advance)

8:05 — And yeah, the NBC News poll’s projection is conservative relative to some of the others I’ve seen

Gavin: 8:06 — Obama’s responding to the first pre-screened question. It is a bit of a farce, but let’s hope this format lends itself to a more free-flowing debate than last week’s vice presidential debate

Cris: 8:07 — (McCain addresses Obama–almost makes eye contact)

8:07 — McCain’s “energy independence” proposal doesn’t really stand up to scrutiny

Gavin: 8:07 — “My friends” count: 1

8:08 — 2

Cris: 8:08 — 2!

8:08 — Jinx

8:09 — Treasury Secretary question–not Phil Gramm, I’m guessing

Gavin: 8:09 — Brokaw asks who would replace Paulson. McCain jokes “Not you, Tom” — awkward laughter from the moderator

8:09 — One can only hope not

Cris: 8:10 — Whiner

Gavin: 8:10 — Obama drops Warren Buffet. Solid guy to have on your side given the current economic mess

Cris: 8:10 — Both namechecking Buffett….

8:10 — Trying to bite some of his cred

Gavin: 8:11 — Next question, from Oliver Clark in section F

Cris: 8:11 — Brokaw’s wearing a Livestrong bracelet

8:12 — So 2004

Gavin: 8:12 — Lance is staging a comeback though

Cris: 8:12 — Oh yeah. Who’s he racing for?

8:13 — (Can’t believe McCain’s attacking Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac)

Gavin: 8:13 — Not sure, but it’s more cancer awareness stuff

Cris: 8:13 — Didn’t Rick Davis lobby for them? — Fannie and Freddie

Gavin: 8:14 — McCain has to be bold. He’s got to say something about the economy, and he’s probably not going to win the fight unless he really makes something stick

8:14 — Yeah, Freddie Mac

Cris: 8:15 — This is one of Obama’s biggest weapons against McCain

8:15 — His history of deregulation

8:16 — Here’s the Rick Davis reference

Gavin: 8:16 — Yep. McCain’s tried to have it both ways, but this clearly favors the Democrat

Cris: 8:17 — I’m so sick of metaphors that invoke the Wall Street/Main Street comparison.

Gavin: 8:18 — Hopefully the talking points will be replaced by some rhetoric that’s a bit more concrete post-election

8:18 — Or better yet, action

Cris: 8:19 — It’d be nice to think so, but the incoming administration are going to have their domestic agenda constrained in so many ways

Gavin: 8:19 — Yeah, in this sense, assuming Obama hangs on to his commanding lead, the economy will become a double-edged sword

8:20 — He’ll have a hard time implementing a number of his campaign promises, and Mitt Romney and Co. are going to be eagerly eyeing his performance in the first four years if he gets the job

Cris: 8:21 — I wonder how badly McCain is wishing he’d given Romney the VP nod

8:21 — “The system in Washington is broken”

8:21 — Quoth McCain

8:22 — The system of which he’s been part for 26 years

Gavin: 8:22 — McCain refers to the McCain-Feingold reform his campaign has largely tried to subvert

Cris: 8:22 — He’s taking so much soft money this cycle

Gavin: 8:22 — Out of necessity, if nothing else, but he’s been all over the map on these issues. He’s got to grasp at straws, and that’s what he’s doing

Cris: 8:22 — From the RNC

8:23 — My friends count: 3

Gavin: 8:23 — Romney wouldn’t have gone over well with the evangelicals maybe, but his economic credentials could have been formidible

Cris: 8:24 — Yeah. If he’d been paying attention to the slump in the housing market that’s been evident since last year, he might have chosen differently

8:24 — Did you hear his last response?

Gavin: 8:24 — I missed it

Cris: 8:25 — He’s talking about cutting entitlements

8:25 — Given how much of his remaining support comes from people over 60, that sounds like electoral suicide

Gavin: 8:26 — His campaign has been a case study in electoral suicide

Cris: 8:26 — According to the Wall Street Journal, he wants to cut over a trillion in Medicare benefits

Gavin: 8:26 — (That might not be entirely fair)

Cris: 8:26 — No way he’s getting Florida with that policy

8:26 — I don’t think it’s entirely fair

8:27 — He’s just had the wind blowing in his face since the convention

Gavin: 8:28 — But he did pick Palin. And then there was the campaign suspension. And sustained antagonism toward the media

8:28 — Tactics that I suppose may have worked well in a different election cycle.

Cris: 8:29 — They’ve got to fall back on the culture war stuff.

8:29 — Appeal to people’s sense of resentment rather than their capacity for rational thought

8:30 — McCain brings up his “spending freeze”

8:31 — Does he really think a spending freeze could pass either house of Congress?

Gavin: 8:31 — Probably not, but stranger things have happened

8:31 — On a different note, to this point I think both candidates have been rhetorically solid. Nothing out of the ordinary yet

Cris: 8:33 — They’ve been hammering these points for two years

Gavin: 8:33 — I still expect McCain to make a bold move at some point. Thoughts?

Cris: 8:33 — He beggars the imagination

Gavin: 8:34 — Yeah. They aren’t straying from their stock talking points much. This has got to be favoring Obama so far

Cris: 8:34 — Man, we’ve been bashing McCain almost exclusively

8:34 — But maybe it’d be worse to make a pretense of objectivity

Gavin: 8:35 — I’m trying to look at this objectively. But the focus tonight is undoubtedly on McCain — he has to do something to revive his campaign, and fast

Cris: 8:36 — Mickey Kaus from Slate: Better a political journalists prejudices be blatant than latent.

Gavin: 8:36 — “My friends”

Cris: 8:36 — No. 4

8:36 — Don’t his aides tell him not to do that?

8:37 — Isn’t there some focus group that turns their dial to the left when he does that shit?

Gavin: 8:38 — That’s McCain’s schtick.

Cris: 8:38 — Not paying attention to polls? Claiming not to pay attention to polls?

Gavin: 8:39 — I was just referring to the “my friends” — I think it works for him

8:39 — Obama’s going back to the “tax cuts for 95 percent of Americans” thing again

Cris: 8:40 — Obama’s proposal would take us closer to the wealthy carrying more of the tax burdens of European countiries

Gavin: 8:41 — “My friends”

8:43 — That’s true, and one of McCain’s economic strong points. But given the state of our economy, I suspect these taxes would be inevitable at some point regardless of the outcome of this election

8:44 — McCain just got an environmental question from a town hall-goer, this will be interesting

8:44 — He’s separating himself from Bush and name-dropping Lieberman (and another “my friends”)

Cris: 8:44 — Boy did Lieberman bet on the wrong horse

8:45 — I actually agree with McCain on nuclear

8:45 — Reactors have become far safer than they once were

8:45 — And they produce far less waste than when they were first introduced

Gavin: 8:46 — On that issue, I don’t think Obama is as opposed as he’s made out to be

8:46 — “I favor nuclear power as one component” — Obama just said

8:47 — Obama says McCain voted against alternative fuels 23 times

Cris: 8:47 — Obama brings up drilling point here

8:47 — We likely have only three percent of global reserves

8:48 — OPEC could offset any decrease in price by restricting their output

8:49 (He didn’t say that, but I read a paper about domestic drilling by some dudes at UC Santa Barbara that said that)

Gavin: 8:50 — I’ll take your word for it

8:50 — Still on the domestic front — question from the audience on health care

8:52 — Obama hammers McCain — he’s going to tax your health care benefits after giving you a tax credit

8:52 — “That is fundamentally the wrong way to go”

8:54 — McCain hits back, defends his $5000 refundable tax credit proposal

Cris: 8:55 — Hair transplant joke totally bombs!

Gavin: 8:55 — Haha I liked it. But it didn’t get any response

8:57 — Obama’s definitely got the upper hand on this issue, regardless of what either candidate says

Cris: 8:59 — Seen any polls on American support for universal healthcare?

Gavin: 9:00 — Not lately, but Americans generally seem to be pretty supportive of the idea

Cris: 9:01 — http://www.everybodyinnobodyout.org/DOCS/Polls.htm

Gavin: 9:02 — McCain says Obama was “wrong on Iraq and the surge” and doesn’t understand our national security challenges

9:02 — Also drops another “my friends”

Cris: 9:02 — Nice inversion of the “Obama doesn’t understand” attack

Gavin: 9:02 — It’s pretty silly to tout your Iraq credentials when you cheerleading the invasion shortly after 9/11

9:03 — Yes. Obama’s nailing McCain on this, McCain’s not going to score many points here I don’t think

Cris: 9:03 — Dude we’re spinning like it’s our job

Gavin: 9:03 — Obama goes back to the Iraq has a $70 billion surplus. I’m a bit skeptical of this argument, but it sounds good

Cris: 9:05 — Brokaw asks what the Obama Doctrine and the McCain Doctrine would be…

Gavin: 9:05 — Obama voices tacit support for intervening in cases of genocide

Cris: 9:05 — You think so?

9:06 — Sounds like he’s advocating it now

Gavin: 9:06 — Yeah, you’re right

Cris: 9:06 — “tactical support…logistics” in Sudan

Gavin: 9:06 — That’s certainly beyond tacit, yeah

9:07 — McCain’s going back to Iraq… and now genocide… “That requires a cool hand at the tiller” — not a bad line

Cris: 9:07 — Nobody mentions the Kurds

Gavin: 9:07 — They never get any love

Cris: 9:08 — At least Northern Iraq is fairly peaceful, last time I checked

9:08 — Relative to the rest of the country

9:09 — Re most recent question: we’re already in pakistan

9:10 — (Woman asked whether we should “respect Pakistani sovereignty” or pursue al-Queda there.

9:10 — As though we couldn’t do both

Gavin: 9:11 — Obama: “We will kill bin Laden, we will crush al Qaeda. That will be our biggest national security priority”

Cris: 9:11 — Excellent play by play man

Gavin: 9:12 — McCain’s referencing his role model Teddy Roosevelt, turning it into an attack on Obama — he talks too loudly In terms of foreign policy proposals

9:13 — “Talk softly but carry a big stick”

Cris: 9:13 — This is by far the best debate

Gavin: 9:14 — I wish the vice presidential debate had been in this format

Cris: 9:14 — McCain’s aides would have never agreed to it

Gavin: 9:15 — Obama hits McCain on “bomb bomb bomb Iran” and for saying he’d annihilate North Korea — that’s not speaking softly

9:15 — They wouldn’t have agreed to it, but it’s a fun thought

Cris: 9:15 — Absolutely

Gavin: 9:16 — McCain responds, goes back to the “we have fundamental disagreements” line. He sounds pretty solid on foreign policy

Cris: 9:17 — Historically his strength

Gavin: 9:17 — On Iraq troop withdrawal, Obama says it has to be responsible and over time. Now he’s talking about Afghanistan

9:17 — Puts pressure on Karzai

9:19 — McCain commends General Petraeus. He’s pretty popular among conservatives. And now McCain says Obama still won’t admit he was wrong about the surge

Cris: 9:19 — McCain advocates a “surge”-like strategy applied to Afganistan

9:20 — Even though Gen. McKiernan has suggested a “surge” wouldn’t work there

Gavin: 9:21 — At least McCain probably knows the different between McKiernan and McClellan. Biden seemed to have stumped Palin on that one pretty easily

Cris: 9:23 — Candidates addressing a question about putting pressure on Russia to respect other nations’ sovereignty w/o “starting another cold war”

9:23 — According to the MSNBC graphic

Gavin: 9:24 — Yep. McCain earlier said there wouldn’t be another cold war with Russia

9:24 — Next question from Brokaw: Do you think Russia is part of the evil empire?

9:24 — Obama: They’ve done evil things. McCain: Maybe

Cris: 9:24 — Is “an Evil Empire”

Gavin: 9:25 — My bad

Cris: 9:25 — Both are talking awfully cavalierly about a nominal ally of ours

9:25 — Now fielding a question about Israel

Gavin: 9:26 — McCain pats the veteran on the shoulder, shakes his hand. That’ll score him points

Cris: 9:26 — He’s loving it

Gavin: 9:27 — This question is about the threat of Iran. McCain’s calling Obama out on the no precondition meeting with foreign leaders thing. I’m not sure how well that’s selling

Cris: 9:28 — Obama: “we cannot allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon”

Gavin: 9:28 — Standard fare from both candidates

Cris: 9:29 — Obama: “We should have direct talks not just with our friends but with our enemies”

9:30 — Ooh, last question

Gavin: 9:30 — And: Failure to talk with foes has led to greater pursuit of nukes

9:30 — Brokaw warns about the zen-like quality of this last question

Cris: 9:30 — “What don’t you know, and how will you learn it?”

9:31 — Obama dodges with a reference to his wife

Gavin: 9:31 — He likes doing that

9:31 — Now he’s going back to his modest roots, which is a pretty strong talking point

9:32 — And turning from that to domestic issues

Cris: 9:32 — Uses question as a springboard for a closing statement

9:33 — “I hope that all of you are willing to continue on this journey called America” Obama says

9:33 — That’s almost pretty.

9:33 — Whoa, McCain trying to position his upbringing as disadvantaged

Gavin: 9:34 — He’s pretty impassioned

Cris: 9:34 — “My mother basically raised our family”

9:34 — McCain blocks the teleprompter.

9:35 — And so ends the debate.

Gavin: 9:35 — Was there a clear winner?

Cris: 9:36 — I don’t think anyone can win when they are debating the viability/wisdom/prudence of multiple policy positions

9:37 — If they were both addressing a single issue, and clearly on opposite sides on said issue, I think there’s an argument for claiming there’s a winner .

9:38 — Chris Matthews just called eBay CEO Meg Whitman “Ann Whitman”

9:40 — Good shot of Obama and Michele in profile

9:40 — Are you watching this on MSNBC?

Gavin: 9:40 — I’ll analyze this from a different perspective. I think McCain had to do something to turn around the polls, and I don’t think he did that.

9:40 — So in that sense, I don’t think he won the debate

9:40 — A stalemate, perhaps

9:40 — Yeah, MSNBC

Cris: 9:41 — I guess I should switch

9:41 — It’s like giving up a security blanket

9:41 — I’m no longer in an echo chamber that reinforces my prejudices

Gavin: 9:42 — I kind of find it irritating, to be honest, but I like Chris Matthews’ personality

Cris: 9:42 — Fred Barnes is on Fox News

9:43 — One of Bush’s last outspoken advocates in the mainstream media

9:43 — Frank Luntz focus group picks Obama over McCain as more compelling

9:45 — Half think John McCain did better  than Obama on the economy

9:45 — Have you seen these T. Boone Pickens ads?

9:46 — Big ad campaign obliquely advocating offshore drilling

Gavin: 9:46 — I think he’s recognized that the future will be in alternative energy and he’s looking to cash in if he can

Cris: 9:47 — Well, the only beneficiaries of US offshore drilling in the immediate future would be oil companies and states that authorize it

9:49 — We’d get billions in federal tax revenue too, eventually, but it most likely wouldn’t substantially lower the price of gas or lessen our dependence on foreign oil

Gavin: 9:57 — Post-debate chatter says McCain was, and had to be, aggressive, while Obama was more subdued

9:58 — If there were any game changers here, I didn’t see them

9:58 — And assuming the economy remains front and center into November, things don’t look good for McCain

Cris: 10:00 — Abysmal

Gavin: 10:00 — The pendulum has definitely swung away from the Moral Majority

Cris: 10:01 — Here’s hoping it keeps heading in our direction